Economic data from the past couple of months suggests higher inflation and less economic growth in the short-term. This is likely due to supply-chain bottlenecks and product outages that companies are scrambling to fix. While this is frustrating to consumers and companies alike right now, there is a silver lining: it’s brightening the outlook for economic growth in 2022, when companies will have had time to catch up. The Federal Reserve is currently forecasting a real economic growth of 3.3% for next year, which is probably much too low. This means that 2022 might feel more like a sustainable boom rather than the start-and-stop growth we seem to be getting in 2021.

This is the most apparent in the housing and auto market but is likely an economy-wide dynamic. Depending on how long it takes supply chains to ramp up and how long demand stays robust, it could take until 2022 for industries to have time to restock their shelves. Read more.