High inflation is hitting the U.S. economy right now. Although recessions are hard to predict, economists polled for Bankrate’s Second-Quarter Economic Indicator say there is a 52% chance the U.S. economy will contract within the next 12-18 months. This is a dramatic rethinking about the economic outlook after just one-third predicted this outcome during the prior quarter’s poll. Supply chain delays, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and conflict in Ukraine are among the issues that have pushed inflation to the highest levels since the 1980’s.

“A rising or high risk of recession is not necessarily the same as certainty of a severe recession,” says Mark Hamrick, Bankrate senior economic analyst and Washington bureau chief. “Compared with experiences over the past couple of decades, the emerging situation with the economy may well once again be unlike others. People will need to remain agile with their personal finances as best they can, being aware of, and responding to changing and possibly worsening conditions.”

(Bankrate, 07.01.22)

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